Bidding Analysis Hand #2

[rakbeater]

Only one short suit to take the bid, but 6/7 trick takers. What do YOU do?

[ToreadorElder]

NO, NO, NO, NO, NO!!!!

You GIVE meld or aces, then PASS FOREVER.

PERIOD.

The ONLY times you EVER play this hand are:
a) double bidder out situations
b) partner offers big meld, then passes...and even then, I really, REALLY doubt I'll bid to play, UNLESS it's double bidder out.

Very simply: why? You have 6 tricks on defense, too, so you're staring 20 in the face. Your meld is the same in any suit (the heck with worrying about a 2 point difference). Why take ANY risk?

THIS IS WHY I make the huge distinction between a strong hand, and an offensive hand. This is absolutely NOT!!! an offensive hand.

Looking at it again: if you can't give aces, you should pass. This is 12 with 6 aces; that's not 20. It might work to give 20, but IMO it's just a weeee bit shy. Secondary issues would come into play, and most of them say 'pass.'

[rakbeater]

Good post. You covered just about everything: What if Partner opens the bidding with 51?

[ToreadorElder]

If RHO bids, pass and plan to defend. RHO may be in deep trouble, so giving 20 may encourage partner to compete too high.

If RHO passes, the options are 53 or pass. Note that when using strength first, 53 is a pretty accurate description. You *can* play the hand, so this guards against some rare-ish cases when partner doesn't have one, AND when you have a reasonable chance to pull enough to make your bid, but does NOT have a marriage...A's and J's, A's and a pinochle, A's and Q's. Note that if partner only has A's around and nothing else, you're looking at pulling 29, with only a 5 card trump suit. And again, you may overly encourage partner if LHO gets frisky.

The upside of 53 is, it's not that much of a lie. It's reasonable to hope that 5 of your aces will cash, which means 12 points plus your 12 meld. That's 24. And partner may have, say, a 6 card run ATTKQJ or AATKQJ, and 60 will be pretty easy.

Passing, tho, would also be reasonable. It's not likely partner has NO marriage, and the only time you're really going to be badly placed is if his only marriage is in clubs, and his suit is like yours. Note that if he's got even 6 clubs (AKQQJJ or so), you're not too badly off. If he's only got 3 or 4 spades, you're hurting. Sounds like a tossup...and it is, between clubs and spades. But there's reasonable chances he *won't* name clubs. You're quite happy even if he's forced to name an AKQJ red suit; he'll have a reasonable shot at making.

If you trust partner not to go crazy, then bid 53. If partner is the type that'll seriously overbid on the wrong hand type, pass.

There's a side issue here. Realistically, you're just as happy to defend. What's more likely to encourage LHO to bid *when he shouldn't* and to get partner to let him have it? Obviously, pass does the latter unless partner has one of a few pretty specific hand types. (Think 6 card run with kings around, where he was planning to give 20 next time.) This isn't clear. Ask yourself, on what sequence would you be more inclined to mix things up, when you're in 4th seat:

51-pass-pass-? or
51-pass-53-?

The former actually strongly suggests the opponents are in DEEP trouble, and bidding may just bail them out. (There's clearly no guarantee they even have 20 to make the board, and even if they do, they will often need close to 30 to make their bid.) Conversely, tho, some players think it'll be a license to steal.

Score may also play a huge role. If you pass, probably nothing terrible will happen. You know you've got 20 meld, and expect to pull 20. Figure that you're +45 about 90% of the time that it matters. (If LHO has a huge offensive hand, what you do often won't matter.) If the opponents do enter the fray, that's still true, AND you have some chance of setting them. How high may depend on them, but I'd guess anything from 1 in 5 to 1 in 3. Don't ignore that. The #1 factor is, you expect to be +45 by passing. Bidding might get you to +65, but will also lead sometimes to -65. Going back to the score: if you're ahead 400-300, say...+45 puts you at 445, and 55's plausible without taking the bid. Ergo, you're 1 hand away. -65 means you're at 335, and now 3 (typical) hands *where you take the bid* are needed.

[richardpaulhall]

What is "double bidder out"?

[ToreadorElder]

When each team is within 1 normal hand of winning the game...so assuming a game to 500, each has about 435 typically...or somewhat less if the bidding goes high enough, of course.

Bidder out, to me, means one side (who is bidding) has, again, about that 435 or so...a 65 hand, which is pretty common, puts them out. So if the score is, say, 440-380, the side that's behind may have to bid aggressively on...maybe not so much. The team leading will commonly need the extra meld from their presumed run (given that they are bidding). Note that if the score's 480-380...then the losing side has to pull 31, so being aggressive with the meld to compete, but not much in tricks, doesn't work.

[richardpaulhall]

This is one for the Glossary.

[mickmackusa]

(01-30-2013, 03:43 PM)richardpaulhall Wrote:  This is one for the Glossary.

I would like to spell this one all the way out for beginners.

Let's say the score is 499(Team 1) to 350(Team 2).
Team 1 melds triple pinochle and some other small change for 100 meld.
Team 2 bid 150 and wins the contract then displays a double run plus change for 160 meld.

Before the second round, the score is:
Team 1 = 599
Team 2 = 510
Now both teams are over 500, and the game is going to be finished after the second round of play, one way or another.

As with normal play:
+ If Team 1 pulls 31 or more points, then Team 2 is set and Team 1 coasts out by saving their meld as winners without bidding.
+ If Team 2 pulls 31 or more points, then Team 1 loses their meld and their score returns to 499 while Team 2 makes their bid and exceeds 500 for the win.

The Bidder Out senario:
+ If both Team 1 and Team 2 save 20 to 30 points then both retain their meld. Let's say it's a split (by some miracle versus a double-run.) Team 1 gets 25 and Team 2 gets 25. The scores are:
Team 1 = 624
Team 2 = 535
Despite Team 1 finishing the game with more points than Team 2, Team 2 is the winner because they bid. Bidding breaks 'a tie' when both teams exceed 500 in the same hand.

[ToreadorElder]

It's the mechanics. The game winner is the first to 500, but with a twist. The BIDDING side scores FIRST...so if the bidder goes over 500, it's game over. This is even true in this scenario:

a) Score is Team 1, 490; Team 2, 480.
b) Team 2 deals, it goes pass - pass - pass - 50.
c) Team 1 has 20 meld, Team 2 *doesn't*. The score becomes 510-430. But this is the twist: Team 1 does NOT win. If Team 2 doesn't make the board, or IIRC if Team 2 doesn't make their bid, the game is NOT over, regardless of the score.
d) Next hand, Team 2 takes the bid and scores 71...to reach 501. Game over, Team 2 wins.

So, mick's description is wrong. You DO NOT score any points at all until the play is complete. Team 2 might take the bid AND pull 31...but not make their bid. They lose points, and Team 1 doesn't save the meld. So even that "it'll be over regardless" does not hold when the bidding side needs more than 31 to save.

[mickmackusa]

(01-31-2013, 02:32 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  It's the mechanics. The game winner is the first to 500, but with a twist. The BIDDING side scores FIRST...so if the bidder goes over 500, it's game over. This is even true in this scenario:

a) Score is Team 1, 490; Team 2, 480.
b) Team 2 deals, it goes pass - pass - pass - 50.
c) Team 1 has 20 meld, Team 2 *doesn't*. The score becomes 510-430. But this is the twist: Team 1 does NOT win. If Team 2 doesn't make the board, or IIRC if Team 2 doesn't make their bid, the game is NOT over, regardless of the score.
d) Next hand, Team 2 takes the bid and scores 71...to reach 501. Game over, Team 2 wins.

So, mick's description is wrong. You DO NOT score any points at all until the play is complete. Team 2 might take the bid AND pull 31...but not make their bid. They lose points, and Team 1 doesn't save the meld. So even that "it'll be over regardless" does not hold when the bidding side needs more than 31 to save.

[sigh]...Leave it to TE to say that some varieties of grass are a shade of blue when someone else says that grass is green. I layout a specific scenario and spell out the score along the way so that beginners can follow. Then, in classic form, TE tells me I'm wrong; instead of just adding more detail to the discussion. At least I wasn't "badly, horribly, terribly wrong" like in http://www.powerpinochle.com/forum/showt...php?tid=70. These credibility stripping posts make me not want to post in this forum despite my love of pinochle. I wonder if any other guests/members choose not to post for this reason. TE's post would have been just as knowledgeable and helpful by dropping "So, mick's description is wrong." and using "Here are two different scenarios, where the bidder is set and the opposition doesn't save..." Rep minus 2. There is no benefit to being caustic.